Public school enrollment nationwide has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and statistics indicate that the fall is still ongoing.
The National Center for Education Statistics projects that public Kâ12 enrollment would reduce by about 4 million students to 46.9 million by 2031, a 7.6% nationwide decline, from its peak of 50.8 million students in the fall of 2019.
The Northeast, West, and Rust Belt districts are especially impacted by the dramatic declines in primary and middle school enrollment. 2020 had the biggest one-year drop in public school enrollment since World War II, with a 3% drop.
According to the NCES 2024 December report, which takes into consideration statistics from the fall of 2023, public school enrollment decreased by more than 4% in 18 states. The following ten states saw declines of more than 5%: California, Colorado, Hawaii, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
According to a recent Boston University study, middle schools and high-income districts in Massachusetts were particularly at risk, with middle school enrollment falling by over 8% in the autumn of 2024 and the biggest losses occurring among white and Asian kids.
In Massachusetts, homeschooling increased by 45% and private school attendance increased by 14% during the fall 2024 school year, while public school enrollment decreased by 2% compared to pre-pandemic averages.
Public school enrollment losses can also be attributed to long-term demographic changes like declining birth rates, domestic migration, and a shift toward school choice during the COVID-19 pandemic. Private, charter, and homeschooling models are becoming more and more popular among parents, and their use grew significantly during and after the pandemic.
According to a Gallup poll conducted in February, the percentage of individuals who say they are satisfied with public education decreased from 37% to 24% between 2017 and 2025, indicating that unhappiness with the American public education system is growing.
The 1.8 million students that traditional districts lost were somewhat offset by a net gain of 400,000 students over five years, according to the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools.
Funding for public schools, which is frequently correlated with enrollment, is also declining. The Reason Foundation reports that 98 public schools in 15 states shuttered in 2023â2024, with California, Colorado, Florida, and New York suffering the most losses. Districts must make difficult choices about infrastructure, staffing, and school consolidations.
This past school year, almost 150 Chicago schools were operating at half capacity due to declining enrollment, while another 47 were operating at one-third capacity, according to a report by ProPublica.
Some researchers, nevertheless, present a more complex perspective. According to a researcher at Kennesaw State University, lower enrollment may result in more money allocated to each student. Districts frequently keep money for children who leave, so those funds can be used to help the remaining pupils, increasing staff pay and providing access to teachers and other support services.
